Risk Warning

Binary Outcome Risk

Every prediction market on Polymarket resolves to exactly one of two values: $1.00 (Yes) or $0.00 (No). Unlike stocks or commodities, there is no middle ground. A position that appears to be worth 80¢ the day before expiry can resolve to zero if the outcome does not occur. There is no stop-loss that can protect you from binary resolution — when a market settles, your position settles with it.

Leverage Amplification

Leverage multiplies the size of your market exposure relative to your deposited collateral. This works symmetrically — both profits and losses are scaled by the leverage multiplier. At 5× leverage, a 20% adverse price move results in a 100% loss of margin. At 20×, a 5% move does the same.

In illiquid markets or during rapid price discovery events (elections being called, sports results confirmed), prices can move the full distance in seconds. There is no guarantee of orderly exit near your liquidation level.

Liquidation Risk

When your margin balance falls below the maintenance margin threshold, your position is subject to forced liquidation. Liquidation is automatic and cannot be reversed. In fast-moving markets, the liquidation execution price may be significantly worse than your calculated liquidation level — this is known as slippage, and it means you could lose more than your initial margin in extreme cases.

The Margin Health indicator in the trade panel shows your current buffer above liquidation. A reading below 20% is critical. Monitor it continuously when holding leveraged positions.

Liquidity Risk

Prediction markets vary significantly in liquidity. High-profile political or financial markets may have deep order books; niche or long-tail markets may have very thin books with wide spreads. In a thin market, a single large order can move the price dramatically — and when you need to exit a leveraged position quickly, the available liquidity may not be there.

Always check the order book depth and current spread before opening a leveraged position. A wide spread on entry translates directly to an immediate unrealized loss.

Counterparty and Platform Risk

Polymargin is a front-end terminal that reads from Polymarket's public APIs. Polymargin does not custody funds, execute trades, or operate a matching engine. Risks associated with Polymarket's platform — including smart contract bugs, oracle failures, resolution disputes, and regulatory action — are outside Polymargin's control and may affect your ability to access or settle positions.

Suitability Warning

Leveraged prediction market trading is not suitable for most retail investors. This product is designed for users who have prior experience with leveraged trading instruments, understand margin mechanics, and are comfortable with the possibility of total capital loss. If you are new to prediction markets or leverage, we strongly recommend starting with unleveraged positions and familiarising yourself with how these markets resolve before increasing exposure.